Actually … No …
Before we go any further, this is not about whether the Nike ad was good or bad, or whether you support Kaepernick’s, or Nike’s, stance or not. It is about being sure you have enough data before creating your headline or article. The reporting on this claim has been dismal and factually incorrect.
A correct title would be, “Nike’s Number of Online Orders Increased by 31% over the Labor Day Holiday”.
Interpreting the Data
First, the number of Nike’s online orders did increase by 31% (over the Labor Day Holiday) compared to the previous year. This is not the same as revenues or sales dollars unless the average order size in dollars was constant between the two periods … So, we don’t know.
Second, the number of orders throughout the month of August and early September was up every day in 2018 versus 2017. Were the four days in question really that different … No.
Third, the 31% cited is for the number of online sales orders only, not all sales … We won’t know that overall result until Nike files is 10Q for the 3rdcalendar quarter sometime mid-November.
Fourth, Nike online sales were $2 billion in 2017 with a goal of $7 billion by 2020. If they are on that trajectory, their online sales in 2018 should be about $3.7 billion, or $100 million per day. If we assume even sales (not ever true) throughout the year, 4 days would be $400 million, and a 31% increase would amount to about $124 million. This is not a small number, but Nike already was planning on an 85% increase in online revenues in 2018 versus 2017, so a 31% increase in online orders is much lower than we would expect, unless the average dollars per order tripled compared to the same quarter last year.
The success or failure of the campaign will be measures by results over significantly more than 4 days on a portion of Nike’s business that represents about 10% of current revenue. So, the net-net reality is that Nike’s orders were up by 3.1% overall, assuming all other sources of revenue did not grow at all. If other sources grew, then the overall effect is diminished even more. This is simply not a meaningful number.
Opinion Versus Action
A recent omnibus poll conducted by a market research firm called SSRS and provided exclusively to CNN indicates that:
”Among people ages 18 to 34, 44% supported Nike’s decision to use Kaepernick, while 32% opposed it, according to an SSRS Omnibus poll provided exclusively to CNN. In the 35-to-44 age bracket, the decision earned support among a majority, 52%, compared to 37% who were against it.”
“Older adults were less supportive of the move: Only 26% of adults over 65 backed the decision.”
Conspicuously missing from the reporting by CNN was the 55-to-64 age bracket. Usually this means that the data did not support the storyline. Also missing was the wording of the specific question asked and the questions leading up to the answers to this particular question. These are critical to understanding if there might have been any bias introduced by question wording or questions leading up to the one cited.
Consumers have opinions all the time. Whether or not they make purchase decisions based on those stated opinions is a completely different question.
Conclusions
At the minimum, four days is too soon to tell the impact of any ad, let alone a controversial one. In all likelihood the Kaepernick ad did not have nearly as great an effect as headlines would claim. Perhaps over time it might, but the headlines are simply not true.
Meantime, it would be great if the media correctly stated and analyzed the data they were given in any report or opinion. But that appears to be too much to ask. As Henry Ford said, “Thinking is the hardest work there is, which is probably the reason why so few engage in it.
